Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
